It's hard not to see the UK Euro elections as a Brexit Poll, Round 2. Perhaps some voters didn't see it that way, but presumably Brexit party voters did (what else did Brexit Party mean?); and presumably the LibDem & Green swingers did too.
These are the England, Wales, Scotland results (Northern Ireland results not yet available) analysed as if it were a Brexit poll and on the assumption that 100% of Conservative voters were Pro-Brexit and that Labour is split 50/50:
Pro-Brexit | 7,349,304 | 44% |
Pro-Remain | 6,791,094 | 41% |
Split | 2,398,097 | 14% |
N/A | 88,759 | 1% |
Total | 16,627,254 |
“Split” covers primarily the Labour Party. Evidently there is a large part of the Labour Party that supports a People's Vote; the YouGov poll survey (fieldwork between Dec 2018 and Jan 2019) puts the Labour Split as 71%/21%. Although I have treated a vote for Conservative as a vote for Brexit, the YouGov poll suggests that is only 69% true of Conservative voters.
Taking those two factors into account brings us closer to the picture described in the Jan 2019 YouGov survey, which has Brexit support at 40%, and Remain support at 46%.
If there were a referendum today on whether or not the UK should remain a member of the European Union, how would you vote? | Total | Con | Lab | Lib Dem |
Remain a member of the EU | 46% | 26 | 71% | 84 |
Leave the EU | 39% | 69 | 21% | 11 |
Would not vote | 6% | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Don’t know | 7% | 4 | 5 | 3 |
Refused | 2% | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Most other parties have an explicit stated position:
Party | %age | Votes | Brexit Position |
The Brexit Party | 31.6% | 5,248,533 | ->Brexit |
Liberal Democrat | 20.3% | 3,367,284 | Remain |
Labour | 14.1% | 2,347,255 | Split |
Green | 12.1% | 2,010,909 | Remain |
Conservative | 9.1% | 1,511,485 | ->Brexit |
Scottish National Party | 3.60 | 594,553 | Remain |
Plaid Cymru | 1.0% | 163,928 | Remain |
Change UK | 3.4% | 571,846 | Remain |
UKIP | 3.3% | 549,348 | ->Brexit |
The Yorkshire Party | 0.3% | 50,842 | Split |
English Democrats | 0.2% | 39,938 | ->Brexit |
UK European Union Party | 0.2% | 33,576 | Remain |
Animal Welfare Party | 0.2% | 25,232 | Remain |
Women's Equality Party | 0.1% | 23,766 | Remain |
Independent Network | 0.1% | 7,641 | - |
Socialist Party of Great Britain | 0% | 3,505 | - |
Independents | 0.5% | 77,613 | - |