politics – Page 2 – Chris F Carroll

UK European Parliament Elections 2019 – Brexit analysis

It's hard not to see the UK Euro elections as a Brexit Poll, Round 2. Perhaps some voters didn't see it that way, but presumably Brexit party voters did (what else did Brexit Party mean?); and presumably the LibDem & Green swingers did too.

These are the England, Wales, Scotland results (Northern Ireland results not yet available) analysed as if it were a Brexit poll and on the assumption that 100% of Conservative voters were Pro-Brexit and that Labour is split 50/50:

Pro-Brexit	7,349,304	44%
Pro-Remain	6,791,094	41%
Split	2,398,097	14%
N/A	88,759	1%
Total	16,627,254

“Split” covers primarily the Labour Party. Evidently there is a large part of the Labour Party that supports a People's Vote; the YouGov poll survey (fieldwork between Dec 2018 and Jan 2019) puts the Labour Split as 71%/21%. Although I have treated a vote for Conservative as a vote for Brexit, the YouGov poll suggests that is only 69% true of Conservative voters.

Taking those two factors into account brings us closer to the picture described in the Jan 2019 YouGov survey, which has Brexit support at 40%, and Remain support at 46%.

If there were a referendum today on whether or not the UK should remain a member of the European Union, how would you vote?	Total	Con	Lab	Lib Dem
Remain a member of the EU	46%	26	71%	84
Leave the EU	39%	69	21%	11
Would not vote	6%	2	2	1
Don’t know	7%	4	5	3
Refused	2%	0	1	0

Most other parties have an explicit stated position:

Party	%age	Votes	Brexit Position
The Brexit Party	31.6%	5,248,533	->Brexit
Liberal Democrat	20.3%	3,367,284	Remain
Labour	14.1%	2,347,255	Split
Green	12.1%	2,010,909	Remain
Conservative	9.1%	1,511,485	->Brexit
Scottish National Party	3.60	594,553	Remain
Plaid Cymru	1.0%	163,928	Remain
Change UK	3.4%	571,846	Remain
UKIP	3.3%	549,348	->Brexit
The Yorkshire Party	0.3%	50,842	Split
English Democrats	0.2%	39,938	->Brexit
UK European Union Party	0.2%	33,576	Remain
Animal Welfare Party	0.2%	25,232	Remain
Women's Equality Party	0.1%	23,766	Remain
Independent Network	0.1%	7,641	-
Socialist Party of Great Britain	0%	3,505	-
Independents	0.5%	77,613	-

Can a Contract Cope with Changing Requirements?

It's been decades since software people started to think about how to cope with requirements changing during the course of an engagement, though other areas of endeavour have surely been doing it since the stone age. Literally.

The state of the art for software, and increasingly for other areas of IT, is Agile. Yet the recognition of agile in contractual relationships has lagged behind, which is odd given that a large part of IT is done by contracting someone.

When all is sunshine and daises this doesn't matter. The time you really really want your written agreements to be right is when things go awry. If you're doing business even with friends & family, it can help to have something in writing.

But how to write a contract for something when you know it's going to change?

This problem came up in a linked-in architects' discussion and I immediately reached for google to find my notes from Susan Atkinson's presentation on Agile Contracts (I saw her present at a Rational User Group conference a couple of years ago). I reduced it to bullet points in /p1201/susan-atkinson-features-of-an-agile-contract, and she was good enough to drop by to correct & update it. She's been developing an Evolve Contract Model with Gabrielle Benefield and the website should be up soon. Meanwhile there is a recent presentation on slide-share at Contract Metrics For Agile.

For those not yet convinced that there's anything wrong with a waterfall-style contract and project, you can read the IEEE 2013 conference paper at http://www.slideshare.net/SusanAtkinson2/ieee-2013-the-flaws-in-the-traditional-contract-for-software-development. nb Open it full-page mode for easy reading.

The Christmas of Politics

The Christmas story is all about politics. Look:

'Now after Jesus was born in Bethlehem of Judea in the days of Herod the king, behold, wise men from the east came to Jerusalem, saying, "Where is he who has been born king of the Jews? For we saw his star when it rose and have come to worship him." When Herod the king heard this, he was troubled, and all Jerusalem with him; and assembling all the chief priests and scribes of the people, he inquired of them where the Christ was to be born.'

Let's translate that a little for the benefit of those of us who don't live in the 1st century Roman empire:

Now after Jesus was born in Bethlehem of Judea during the lifetime term of office of Herod, president and chief justice, behold, wise men from the east came to Jerusalem, saying, "Where is he who has been born the legitimate ruler of the Jews? For we saw his star when it rose and have come to submit to his goverment." When president Herod heard this, he was troubled, and all Jerusalem with him; and assembling all the government ministers, chief judges, and lawyers, he inquired of them where the real president was to be born.

Or, from the other end of the political scene, Mary the pregnant teenager proclaims Christmas is about this: "God has sacked the proud and brought down the powerful from their places in the government and the lawcourts, and has exalted the humble; he has given food and more to the starving, and he has sent the rich packing."

Forgive the loss of poetry but the Good News of Christmas, according to the angel Gabriel, is the coming of a government, a ruler, a judge, who will do it Right. Jesus, rightful ruler of the world. Laws will be just, courts will not cost the earth, and the rich will not shaft the poor.

And so the church that follows Jesus attempts to demonstrate a new society, in which the starving are indeed fed, the poor protected and the weak defended in court.

It is apparent that Jesus' government doesn't favour the usual tools of government — armies, lawyers, yearly reams of new legislation, police enforcement. It is more a person-by-person "if you're following Jesus, then do what he would do" method. Which may sound small and slow but like the mustard seed turns into something surprisingly big. Bigger than the Roman empire. And a lot lot nicer.

It's a government you could believe in.